How AI Will Transform Open Source Business Models
Tailwind's 80% revenue decline leads to a much more interesting story
15 minutes to readThis is Part 2 of a two-part series. Part 1 covered why AI is accelerating open source adoption, not killing it. This post examines which business models thrive and which struggle in the AI era. Subscribe to our mailing list if you haven’t already.
In Part 1, I argued that AI isn’t killing open source - it’s amplifying adoption at unprecedented rates. Akka.NET’s 35% year-over-year download growth in 2025, combined with industry-wide metrics showing 70-87% growth across major package registries, proves that LLMs are recommending and adopting libraries faster than humans ever could.
But there’s a second story buried in the Tailwind CSS saga that deserves its own analysis: AI isn’t killing open source - it’s disrupting specific types of open source businesses.
Adam Wathan captured this perfectly in his GitHub comment:
“Tailwind is growing faster than it ever has and is bigger than it ever has been, and our revenue is down close to 80%.”
Read that again. The framework is thriving. The business is struggling. This isn’t a contradiction - it’s the clearest illustration of where AI is creating winners and losers in the open source economy.
Let me break down what’s actually happening, using both Tailwind’s situation and our own experience at Petabridge as a counter-example.

